The Formula 1 calendar for the 2026 season continues to be shaped by developments in the Middle East. Iran's recent attack on Bahrain has once again demonstrated how quickly the situation in the region can change. While the F1 organization and the FIA are closely monitoring developments, the shortening of decision-making time in terms of equipment and personnel logistics stands out as the most critical issue.
Two or three scenarios are on the table.
Two different scenarios are possible in the upcoming period. In the first and most optimistic scenario, the Qatar and Abu Dhabi races, planned as the season-ending events, remain on the schedule, while the cancelled Bahrain Grand Prix could be reinstated in the vacant slot on October 4th—the open window between the Azerbaijan and Singapore stages. In this case, the calendar could reach a total of 23 races. On the other hand, in the second scenario, attempts to bring Bahrain back to the calendar may be suspended; and if the Qatar and Abu Dhabi Grand Prix races are also cancelled, the season would end with only 20 races.
In this second scenario, the Portimao circuit in Portugal could step in as the season-closing race after Las Vegas, bringing the total to 21. An agreement has already been signed for Portimao to be on the 2027 calendar; and if it also hosts a race in 2026, F1's desire to maintain its number of races would allow the circuit to take advantage of this opportunity under favorable conditions.
Contractual obligations and team leader assessments.
For comparison, a significant point of reference is the 2020 season, overshadowed by COVID-19, where TV contracts required a minimum of 16 races; F1 managed to hold 17 races that year. Since then, the typical minimum number of races in TV deals has risen to 19-20. However, some F1 and team contracts include additional revenue streams activated by holding a 21st race; this forms the main motivation behind seeking an alternative race.
McLaren CEO Zak Brown, speaking to Crash.net, explicitly left the authority regarding the calendar to F1 management: “Stefano Domenicali and the FIA will resolve the calendar issue. They will tell us where to race, and we will gladly race there. We are all facing the same challenge.” Ferrari Team Principal Fred Vasseur adopted a similar stance, saying: “We are all in the same boat as teams, the FIA, and FOM. We all want more races, but that’s the situation. We have great confidence in the FIA and FOM regarding the calendar; they are working to find a solution, and I sincerely believe they are doing their best.” Alpine Team Principal Steve Nielsen, a key figure in keeping the 2020 season afloat, commented: “I’m sure they have countless versions of the calendar; they will choose the option that world events allow.”